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Virginia's Demographics Could See Major Shift By 2040

AP Photo / J. David Ake

Virginia is about to hit the tipping point in terms of demographics, a shift that will challenge what it means to be a racial majority.

Whites have been the majority in Virginia since the Europeans established dominance here during colonial days. But now that dominance is slipping. According to the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, whites will make up less than 50% of the population in Virginia by 2040. Hamilton Lombard is a research specialist at the center.

“It’s not because the white non-Hispanic population is declining a lot. It isn’t. It’s mostly because there’s been a lot of immigration from countries where the population is predominantly non-white or Hispanic.”

Frank Shafroth at George Mason University says the shift from white majority to white minority is driven by the growing international communities surrounding Washington, D.C.

“Some of the fastest growing areas in Northern Virginia are Latino communities and Asian communities, and they wield today just under $50 billion in purchasing power.”

Part of the changing demographics is the result of an evolving sense of what it means to be white. For most of its history, the Census Bureau categorized Hispanic Americans as white. But by 1970 anyone with a Spanish origin could be counted as a separate ethnic population.

Since that time, several other racial categories have been added, and since 2000 people can identify themselves as having more than one race. Researchers at the Weldon Cooper Center say all those new racial categories make the growth in minority populations appear to be happening much faster than it actually is.

This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association

Credit Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service